Primary school league tables: what do they really mean?

The key stage two results are published today, but what does that tell us about children's abilities?

Polly Curtis

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The Government today released the results of tests taken by 600,000 11 years at the end of primary school English this summer. It covers reading, writing and mathematics, the results are used by government and local authorities to identify the schools in the rear, and the schools themselves to decide what they need to concentrate. But what we say about children's abilities?

All children are expected to achieve a "level four" in the key stage two tests at the end of primary school. In English, this means that it is an "active" reader "infer, predict, visualize and" read between the lines. "They will be able to write sentences using commas and well extended. In mathematics, this means being able to add, subtract and divided into head, knowing the multiplication tables up to 10x10 and to plot the coordinates on a graph.

this year

74% children have a level four in English and maths

21%

a level five - which means they work beyond the level expected for a 11 year old. A small minority of

lagged behind the expected level of seven years of English and

mathematics. This difference is even more pronounced when the results are disaggregated by sex. One in ten children under age 11 has a reading age of seven.

I was interested to know what is the relationship between the main results of the testing phase of two to 11 and opportunities for children to get a good GCSE at the end of high school.

This research (pdf) provides some answers. The following tables show the proportion of children at different levels in the tests at 11 and went on to have a good GCSE in the subject. It is based on the results of more than 600,000 young people who took GCSE in 2008 and who provided the key stage two and the test results.

These data show that 60% of students scored at level four in mathematics happened to get over to C GCSEs - but only 5% received an A or A star about 65% achieved a level four in English, and got a C in GCSE over and only 5% A or a star. The results of scientific tests (which have declined since the completion of this study) are a poor indicator later success. Only 32% have a level of two ended up having a double GCSE with a grade above a C.

But the government's objective is now to all children get five good GCSEs (grade above a C) including English and mathematics. This table shows that if 68% of students with a level of four or more get five GCSEs grade C or higher, only 46% - less than half - get five, including English and Mathematics

Level

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